President Trump said recently that he’s coming to a decision point (again) on Iran. This week’s Update explains where things stand, and where they’re likely to be headed.

Iran Overplays its Hand

The Iranians have decided to try to ramp things up a bit, in order to strengthen their negotiating position. And on paper, their seizure of another key economic choke point – the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (the narrow bit between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea) – by Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists looks like a deft move.

Now, the Iranians, or their proxies, can dramatically harm economic traffic through two key international waterways. Moreover, the Houthis have only to harm Saudi Arabian shipping promised (we’re unable to confirm if it was a pinky promise at this time).

President Trump’s response to a request from Riyadh for air support, effectively that this is a Saudi problem requiring Riyadh to serve as the tip of the spear, has merit. But Washington likely has not forgotten that the US-Saudi alliance is built on shared interests only, not shared values – Riyadh is not Jerusalem – and the Saudis have already approached the Chinese for diplomatic support.

Moreover, from their own economic perspectives, industrialized capitals the world over will view Iran’s economic blackmail as unsustainable. 

A Failed Alliance

Iran is hoping that by escalating the conflict they can force a negotiated surrender of the western position before the American midterm elections. They are mistaken. The next six weeks will not decide the outcome of this conflict. Quite the opposite. The crescendo for this conflict begins when President Trump drops his long-promised hammer.

The Houthi development is not to be ignored, nor should the Saudis feel alone. But it was just a few weeks ago that Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey announced their “Mecca Defense Alliance.” So… where’s that alliance now?

If Riyadh wants to avoid at least some of Washington’s reticence, they might reconsider such eye-rolling announcements in the future.

Ultimately, the Mecca alliance proved not to be worth the paper upon which it was printed, and Washington is focused on politics for the next few weeks. So, until after the midterm elections, the Saudis, likely with intelligence and other assistance, need take on the Houthis directly.

If Riyadh commits to dealing with that adversary with the same initiative as the Israelis have taken on Hezbollah, once the midterms pass, the United States will address the Iranian front, thereby undermining all of Iran’s tentacles at once.

Why?

There are some who would ask why? Why not let Iran do whatever and let the Houthis do whatever and so on. Why should they US be involved?

This week, many in the world will commemorate the death of Masha Amini. With this in mind, we won’t actually bother making the moral case in this context; if being reminded of her horrific murder, and the 40,000 that followed, doesn’t make that case, nothing will.

Instead, we offer a different thought to those who would stick their hands in the sand: the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Crops is an army of 150,000 fanatics who celebrate the rape and murder of innocents and have spent a half century thinking about ways to kill all of us – why would we meet that conflict on anyone’s terms but our own?

That’s why.

Sincerely,

The CUFI Action Fund