For the purposes of the first part of this Action Update, we’re going to ignore what everyone is saying. Rather, we’ll just report the reality on the air, land and seas. After that, we promise we’ll bring back in everybody’s statements and opinions so we can check in on the diplomacy front…

Reality Check

There’s good and bad news – regular readers know what we’re gonna start with.

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively under the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Threatening such a narrow waterway, is no massive strategic feat, and the IRGC has been planning for this for decades. This is all it takes, and Iran has it all: a sophisticated and multilayered antiship cruise missile apparatus, naval mines (you don’t need a lot, and they started with a ton), suicide drones (see naval mines), and the low-cost intentional disrupting of civilian ship navigation systems.

In addition, Iran retains theoretical control over more than 900 lbs. of uranium enriched to 60%. This is buried under rubble, and if they come near it, they will likely be immediately bombed, but it’s not really in Ft. Knox.

Nonetheless, IDF Col. Ori Nissim Levy, Ph.D., chairman of the World Nuclear Forum noted recently, "If Iran has the right centrifuges, they could move from 60% enrichment to weapons-grade material in a matter of weeks. The long-term picture may be better after the damage that has been done. The short term is very, very problematic.”

So what was achieved? Well thus far, an overwhelming military and tactical victory, that retains certain largely asymmetric options for harming international shipping. Here’s what’s been achieved: Elimination of ~70% of Iran's launcher array (at least 300 launchers); significant decrease in size of missile barrages over time; at least 70% of Iran's nuclear infrastructure destroyed; 80% of Iran’s air defense systems destroyed, including 1,500 air defense targets; more than 450 ballistic missile and 800 one-way attack drones storage facilities hit; more than 2,000 command and control nodes hit; more than 90% of the regular Iranian navy sunk.

That’s no small victory. Only a fool would take it for granted. 

The Donald J. Trump School of Diplomacy

The Vice President is headed to Pakistan for meetings with Iranians this weekend. As he does so, President Trump continues to move thousands of troops and resources to the region.

If, as reporting indicates, the VP will meet with the Iranian Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, this will be the highest-level face-to-face meeting between the U.S. and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and the first involving a sitting VP. 

In other words, between the title he holds, the armada already there, the decimation of Iran’s conventional military forces, and the thousands of the most highly trained warriors on earth headed to the region, Vice President JD Vance goes to his meeting with a stronger hand than anyone has ever had with the Islamic Republic.

No President has ever brought the regime to its knees. Yes, theoretically there’s still a Mullah in charge, but US and Israeli intelligence report that he’s severely wounded and unable to govern. Let’s put it this way, it may be fair to assume no one sees any value in taking his life as it stands.

Here’s the bottom line: The “confusion” about whether Lebanon was included in the ceasefire needs to be a one-time thing. Israel was able to pull off a massive feat, hitting more than 100 targets in 10 minutes, but none should ever take such for granted.

We urge the Vice President, therefore, to go forth and conquer. To be clear, nothing less than the total surrender of Iran’s nuclear, missile, and proxy efforts will suffice.

Sincerely,

The CUFI Action Fund