According to the Wall Street Journal, the United States presently has more air and naval assets in the region since 2003. Let’s get into it.

The American Posture

President Trump is continuing along his dual track approach. Specifically, he has continued to leave the door open to discussions and has his team meeting with the Iranians regularly; simultaneously the United States has moved an armada capable of laying waste to virtually all of the Ayatollah’s regime.

President Trump has tossed around the idea, in public, of starting with a limited strike to see if the Iranians understand that this only ends when the President says it does. Likewise, Secretary Rubio and, more recently Vice President Vance, have sounded the alarm on Iran’s efforts to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program.

During the State of the Union address earlier this week, the President laid out his position clearly: for decades, it has been the policy of the United States never to allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon.

And the latest reports indicate that President Trump is staying true to his word by demanding the Iranians dismantle their nuclear sites and export all of their nuclear material. The Iranians however have still not gotten the message, and the latest round of talks has seemingly ended with Tehran’s continued opposition to American demands.

The bottom line is that President Trump is taking an appropriately hard line with Iran and has brought in the hardware to ensure one way or the other, the policies of the United States prevail.

The Iranian Posture

Iran is doing what their fathers taught them, so to speak. They are engaged in a futile if full-throated effort to pair robust messaging with moderately provocative military drills, while never really moving on the core issues during negotiations.

Ultimately, Iran knows that it cannot win a conventional war with the U.S., and the U.S. need not fight one to achieve Washington’s aims. The United States can use air and naval power to weaken Tehran to the point that the regime will falter. Iran knows this.

As such, Iran is threatening – effectively or directly – attacking U.S. forces in the region, attacking U.S. allies including Israel, and closing the Straits of Hormuz. This is Iran’s version of deterrence, and it is being amplified by allegedly pro-American voices on the right and allegedly pro-freedom voices on the left.

Despite this amplification, the regime’s post-attack asymmetric tactics suffer from fatal flaws.

What’s Next?

The world has not been terribly concerned with the deaths of tens of thousands of protestors at the hands of the regime, but, make no mistake, if Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz Presidents, Kings, and Prime Ministers around the world will throw one heck of a temper tantrum.

Oil prices will go up, and all the chicken littles will claim the sky is coming down. That’s what Iran is counting on, and there’s a certain merit to that prediction. But as we noted, these world leaders and the chicken littles don’t actually care about people – we do. And it’s clear that President Trump does as well. Lest we forget, it was the protestors – dying and imprisoned - that birthed this moment.

So, if Iran closes the Straits of Hormuz, the President Trump will likely make full use of his armada, and the regime will not do well. Likewise, the U.S. is well prepared for Iran’s various contingencies. For example, it is publicly known that the U.S. has several minesweeping combat ships in the region (and that is how Iran would close the Straits).

Closing the Straits is not the only asymmetric tactic that Iran would deploy which would not do what the rulers wish. We have seen the full measure of Iran’s ballistic missiles launched at Israel. If Iran attacks Israel again, it will not be easy for the Jewish state. But, they are prepared, and Jerusalem is well aware that the only thing worse than a conventional Iranian ballistic missile is a nuclear one.

The regime in Tehran is in a no-win situation. Wisdom dictates a negotiated surrender and escape to a third country. So that leaves us the unanswerable question: Will the Mullah’s arrogance force a smaller war today, to prevent a nuclear war tomorrow?

Whatever Tehran’s Tyrants decide, their days are numbered because the people rallying outside their magnificent palaces and murderous prisons have decided to Make Iran Great Again.

Sincerely,

The CUFI Action Fund